Natural Uranium Reactor Reference Document to Assist IAEA SEG Assessments

As part of the IAEA State Level Concept, a customized State Level Approach (SLA) is developed by the Safeguards Evaluation Groups for each State under safeguards. The SLA takes into consideration the nature and maturity of the State’s nuclear fuel cycle and its technical capability. An acquisition pathway analysis (APA) is conducted to look at the paths a State could take to acquire 1 significant quantity of weapons grade uranium or plutonium. This holistic approach allows the IAEA to efficiently focus inspections on these paths and path steps and adjust timeliness requirements based on the expected time to complete a path. While the path and path steps are well defined, knowledge on the time to construct/operate any clandestine facility remains challenging. This paper will cover one attempt to help develop a basis for a construction timeline and possible indicators of such an effort to support the SLA effort.