Measuring and Mitigating Proliferation Risk

While a great deal of attention has been given to the measurement of proliferation resistance, less attention has been given to the measurement of proliferation risk: i.e., the risk that a country or company will supply, even inadvertently, the strategic materials, equipment, or technology sought by WMD-development programs. This paper will explore the proliferation risk measurement methodology used by DOE’s International Nonproliferation Export Control Program (INECP) to ensure that the program’s efforts are directed where they can have the greatest risk reduction impact. It will then present the methodology’s (sometimes surprising) results and consider their implications for risk mitigation approaches, with a particular call to action for the technical specialists who can support global nonproliferation efforts.