International Safeguards at the Crossroads: Are They Relevant?

Five countries have conducted nuclear explosions and have become acknowledged nuclear weapons states. One other country, India, has conducted a single nuclear test, which it characterized as for peaceful purposes. Perhaps eight additional countries have engaged in the construction or operation of unsafeguarded plants capable of producing weapons-usable nuclear material. One of these, Iraq, while a party to the NPT and to a comprehensive NPT safeguards agreement with the IAEA, is now known to have engaged in a large-scale clandestine nuclear weapons development program. The \"suspect\" nuclear material production activities in these eight additional countries have been viewed in varying degrees as proliferation threats, if not elements of probable nuclear weapons programs. Fortunately, several of these countries have recently become parties to NPT or other comprehensive safeguards agreements. While all of these \"suspect\" activities became known, some at very early stages, none was brought to light initially by international safeguards.