AN INTEGRATED SAFEGUARDS EVALUATION METHODOLOGY

With the available of new strengthened safeguards measures and the adoption of the Model Additional Protocol (INFCIRC/540), there is a need to reassess IAEA safeguards implementation in light of new authorizations, safeguards purposes, and opportunities for both effectiveness and cost efficiency. The challenge to the IAEA is to strengthen its ability to draw strong conclusions regarding the nondiversion of declared material, while improving the cost effectiveness of IAEA safeguards in an environment of budgetary constraints. This significant challenge in safeguards implementation has led to consideration of \"integrated safeguards\", which refers to the integration of measures available under existing authority and those available under the additional authority of INFCIRC/540. Proposals for such integration are now being put forward and, in this paper, are referred to as Integrated Safeguards Proposals (ISPs). Work has been initiated on an Integrated Safeguards Evaluation Methodology (ISEM) tha would bring together the information needed by the IAEA to determine the disposition of ISPs. This paper describes the current state of development of the ISEM by Los Alamos National Laboratory and work in progress. Further work is needed on the difficult issues that have been identified in the development of this methodology, including the assignment of detection probabilities to undeclared activities and the manner in which these probabilities, and the detection probabilities of diversion from declared activities, might be utilized.