INFORMATION ANALYSIS FOR IAEA SAFEGUARDS

The evolution of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards system over the last decade has reflected the recognition that, in order to provide adequate assurance that nuclear programs are exclusively peaceful, the IAEA needs to examine a state’s nuclear activities in more detail than previously. The safeguards strengthening measures and the additional protocol have given the IAEA the authority for wider investigation of nuclear and nuclear-related activities. Not only is the IAEA now expected to verify that all nuclear material is satisfactorily accounted for, but it is also expected to be proactive in providing assurances that clandestine nuclear activities are not being carried out. This expectation extends to all states with comprehensive (“full scope”) safeguards agreements, though clearly the IAEA is best placed to do this for states that have concluded an additional protocol. In order to detect and investigate clandestine nuclear activities, the IAEA has had to embrace new information sources and expand its information analysis capability. The emphasis is on “actionable information”, information that can be directly used in interactions with the state or states involved. Actionable information could lead to lines of inquiry, inspections or complementary access requests. To analyse the new types of information available, the IAEA has expanded its information analysis capability. The Agency requires tools to collect, collate and report the information available and to provide coherent analysis which can be further used by the Agency. This last element is dependent on the Agency having analysts with both a nuclear background and the ability to undertake information analysis. This paper explores the evolving need of the Agency to provide timely and accurate analysis with which to support safeguards assessments and actions. It also outlines how member states can assist the Agency by providing information, tools and expertise; and Australia’s ongoing contributions to support the Agency’s information analysis efforts.