Information Analysis and Integrated Safeguards

Information analysis will be a key element of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) future safeguards mission, but its precise role is not yet clear. The IAEA has a strong institutional interest in increasing its capabilities to utilize information analysis, including State Evaluations, and major progress has been made to date. However, issues remain, especially with respect to implementation. If outstanding issues can be satisfactorily addressed, it will also be important to understand the level and purpose of information analyses in the context of future safeguards requirements, including those for integrated safeguards. Information analysis clearly can play a significant role in establishing and prioritizing acquisition paths for a State and in ensuring they take into account relevant deception and concealment strategies. Its role in assessing the effectiveness of safeguards, in particular in setting or contributing to detection probabilities for paths involving undeclared facilities and activities, needs to be assessed. There is a potential for information analysis to contribute to all of these tasks. This paper analyzes the possible roles of information analysis in this context, with special attention to its role in integrated safeguards.