Future Technical and Policy Challenges in Nuclear Security and Physical Protection

The nuclear landscape today faces an uncertain future. The predicted “nuclear renaissance” has failed to materialize in the United States, and due to increased safety requirements following the Fukushima disaster and advantages held by alternative energy sources, there are daunting questions about economic competitiveness. Nonetheless, nuclear energy remains essential to a climate-conscious world with growing energy demands. The abiding need for nuclear energy, combined with calls for increased safety and economical nuclear power, promises a changing nuclear infrastructure moving forward. In addition, non-nuclear technology is advancing rapidly and looms as a disruptive force in regard to nuclear applications. The threat of nuclear or radiological materials being employed toward destructive ends remains, and therefore the challenge of maintaining advanced nuclear security and physical protection is essential. Many nascent challenges grow, but in the near future the security challenges requiring the most attention exist in the virtual realm: cyber security and artificial intelligence. Contributing to the required focus on cyber security is the possibility of increased technological reliance in security designs for new reactor types, especially the micro- and small modular reactors, and for those deployed in remote locations and nuclear newcomer countries, which may introduce new vulnerabilities. Additive manufacturing promises enormous benefits to the nuclear community but also creates an entire new range of proliferation problems, for example by containing the ability to construct sensitive centrifuge components into a single digital build file, and brings the protection of virtual assets to the forefront of potential weaknesses in the nuclear security regime. Meanwhile, a number of conventional problems linger with imperfect solutions such as long-term spent fuel storage, the prevalence of medical and industrial radiological sources, and the colossal task of screening incoming cargo in ports. One revolutionary technology that could help solve some of these physical protection difficulties is artificial intelligence, but in itself offers a potentially devastating tool when used in an adversarial fashion, for example facilitating the circumvention of cyber security measures. This paper will delve into the challenges posed by these and discusses what must be done to carry effective nuclear security and physical protection into the future.