Fluctuation and Prospective of Nuclear Programme of North Korea

Year
2018
Author(s)
Kwan-Kyoo Choe - Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control
Abstract
North Korea has been trying to make use of its nuclear programme as a main tool of diplomatic leverage for saving its starving and dying regime. After having 6 times of nuclear tests as of the end of Jan. 2018, North Korea has now nothing but maintaining its brinkmanship tactics or approaching to the chair for compromise. Facing tightening pressure of economic sanction from the United Nations, the nuclear programme of North Korea couldn’t evade its fate to be on the table of negotiation for the economic, social survival as well as eventual continuity of political regime. Even though North Korea exaggerates its completion of nuclear and missile programme, it couldn’t keep its political and diplomatic stance as it had been without removing economic sanction and isolation from international society. The goal of this paper is to find out a possibility of denuclearization of North Korea in the midst of its heavy uncertainty. The history of nuclear programme of North Korea has shown us deep fluctuation of hope and frustration related to denuclearization in the process of political and economic negotiation with its counterparts. This paper will be focusing on the main points of inflection in the flow of the nuclear programme of North Korea, which have been formed in the process of negotiation for denuclearization. Every joint of inflection will show us what are the main interests of North Korea in compensation for its denuclearization as well as those of related counterparts. When it comes to a breakthrough to lift the sanction and isolation from international society, it must negotiate with international society in bargaining of its nuclear programme. In the first part, we are going to describe the history of its nuclear programme. In the second part, every joint of inflection in its long history might be drawn in parallel with the main requests of North Korea for eventual denuclearization. The last part will touch prospective of denuclearization of North Korea, which would describe geopolitical situation and features in Northeast Asia. This paper will take historical, comparative and theoretical approaches.