Failure of the INF Treaty: Analysis and Implications

Established arms control treaties and regimes play a crucial role in working towards the goal of total nuclear disarmament. However, withdrawal from or failure of treaties, such as the most recent suspension of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) on the part of the United States and Russia may delay or obstruct achievement of this goal. The United States and Russia, the countries with the largest nuclear arsenals, have been instrumental in establishing bilateral arms control treaties such as the INF which has not only limited their nuclear arsenals but also established norms in the arms control space. The proposed withdrawal from the INF on the part of the United States and Russia is indicative of not just exasperation over perceived violations of the treaty, but the state of US-Russian relations as a whole. The implications of the INF withdrawal are equally ambiguous and potentially far reaching. Rejection of treaties such as the INF poses a threat to building upon established international nuclear nonproliferation norms and the feasibility of disarmament is called into question. This analysis seeks to highlight the significance of the INF as well as similar treaties and norms which contribute to good faith negotiations towards disarmament. The analysis includes major factors leading to the failure of the INF as well as speculation on the impact this withdrawal will have on existing agreements and the creation of future treaties. These policy implications are important considerations for more than just the United States and Russia as they may diminish the standard for better bilateral agreements or more encompassing multilateral agreements related to total global disarmament in the future.