Facilitating Nuclear Disarmament : Veri?ed Declarations of Fissile Material Stocks and Production

There is currently unprecedented interest in seeking progress toward nuclear dis- armament. National declarations of ?ssile material holdings could play an impor- tant role in supporting this e?ort, facilitating both transparency and irreversibil- ity of the process. This paper discusses the desirable content of declarations, the sequencing of information release, and some of the challenges to be expected in re- constructing historic ?ssile material production. Initial declarations are valuable as a con?dence-building measure even without veri?cation. Increasing amounts of background information will be essential, however, if declarations are to serve as a basis for deep cuts in the nuclear arsenals. A robust veri?cation approach would ultimately require access of inspectors to ?ssile material production and storage sites. The methods and tools of nuclear forensic analysis would be a key element of this process. The capabilities and limits of potential approaches for verify- ing declarations of historic production of both plutonium and highly enriched uranium are discussed and requirements for further research and development identi?ed.