Evolution of Safeguards–An Information-driven Approach to Acquisition Path Analysis

The IAEA’s Department of Safeguards h as embarked on an evolutionary process to more fully develop and apply the State -­- L evel C oncept (SLC) for safeguards implementation. T his concept makes use of all safeguards -­- relevant information a vailable in order to focus and prioritize its safeguards activities. K ey component s of the SLC are the development of a State -­- level Approach (SLA ) and Annual Implementation Plan (AIP) , which consists of analysing acquisition paths, establishing and priorit izing technical objectives, and identifying a pplicable safeguards measures. The Next Generation Safeguard Initiative of the National Nuclear Security Administration, Office of Nonproliferation and International Security, has supported Los Alamos National Laboratory ( LANL ) in the development and assessment of options for SLA and AIP development. This paper describes LANL’s multi -­- step model process for SLA /AIP development. The paper begins with an explanation o f how acquisition paths can be enumerated and visualized using a directed graph. In the LANL process, t hese paths are then ranked according to an assessment of their inherent attractiveness followed by a prioritization step driven b y a capability assessment of the State and other sa feguards relevant information . Paths are then assigned performance target s according to their priority which influences the focus and intensity of safeguards effort . Annual t echnical objectives are determined to satisfy these performance targets, and the p ossibility of utilizing random path selection is explored . Researchers at Forschungszentrum Jülich (FZJ) have also been exploring SLA development methods and a hypothetical State , created in collaboration with FZJ, is defined and used in examples for illus trative purposes. Differences in the LANL and FZJ approaches are also identified in the paper.