EVALUATING APPROACHES TO MEETING FUTURE FUEL CYCLE SERVICE NEEDS: OVERVIEW AND DEMONSTRATION OF THE FUEL CYCLE SERVICES NEEDS ESTIMATOR

There is a growing consensus that an international system which offers reliable and affordable access to sensitive nuclear fuel cycle services will be critical in ensuring a peaceful and economically viable future for nuclear energy. In the absence of such a system, states may consider indigenous development of these technologies – a highly costly option that will also fuel concerns about proliferation. To offer an attractive alternative to indigenous development, international fuel cycle service provision systems must assure potential users that sufficient capacity exists to meet growing demand and that there is sufficient protection against supply interruptions. To evaluate these characteristics, stakeholders need to have a trustable method for forecasting demand and examining potential supply scenarios. This paper presents an overview of a transparent, userfriendly, dynamic simulation model – the Fuel Cycle Services Needs Estimator (FSCNE) – designed to support these evaluations and thereby inform the design of reliable international fuel cycle service provision systems. FSCNE allows users to specify nuclear generating capacity and reactor fleet characteristics for multiple states and to evaluate the implications of changes in global supply capacities. We discuss the international approach used to develop and build confidence in FSCNE. We then present the assumptions and equations upon which it is based. Finally, we demonstrate its application by examining hypothetical scenarios in East Asia using the tool.