Envisioning(a(Large-scale(Deployment(of(Small(Modular(Reactors

Small!Modular!Reactors!(SMR)!with!power!levels!much!smaller!than!the! currently!standard!1,000–1,600!MWe!reactor!designs!have!been!held!out!as!a!potential! game!changer!to!the!future!of!nuclear!power.!One!expected!benefit!of!the!development!and! deployment!of!SMR!is!that!it!would!facilitate!expanding!nuclear!power!to!developing! countries!with!relatively!small!electricalRgrid!capacities.!Many!developing!countries!are! considering!nuclear!power!to!help!meet!their!growing!energy!demands.!On!the!supply!side,! SMR!must!be!massRproduced!and!deployed!in!large!numbers!if!they!are!to!be!economically! competitive!with!current!Light!Water!Reactors!(LWR),!because!the!latter!benefit!from! significant!economies!of!scale.!We!explore!the!contours!of!an!expanded!nuclear!generation! capacity!and!the!associated!fuel!cycles. To!lay!out!a!possible!geographical!distribution!of! nuclear!capacity,!we!use!results!from!an!Integrated!Assessment!Model!used!in!climate! policy!analysis.!We!compare!the!proliferation!risks!of!having!such!an!expansion!based!on! SMR!as!opposed!to!LWR.!This!comparison!focuses!on!the!possible!impacts!of!the! deployment!of!multiple!small!reactors,!potentially!in!different!locations,!in!place!of!one! large!reactor.!This!difference!in!reactor!size!would!affect!multiple!characteristics!that!have!a! bearing!on!proliferation!risk,!including!the!quantities!of!nuclear!material!available!at!each! site!and!transported!to!and!from!reactors,!and!the!scale!of!safeguarding!effort!needed!to! lower!risk!of!diversion.!A!wide!variety!of!SMR!designs!with!distinct!characteristics!are! under!development.!In!order!to!explore!the!impacts!of!these!different!designs,!we!have! developed!notional SMR!models!and!analyzed!their!fuel!cycles