THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SAFEGUARDS ACTIVITIES: PERFORMANCE AND REPORTING

In order to retain the confidence of the international community it is necessary for the IAEA to provide clear and meaningful reports on the results of its safeguards activities, reflecting the status of the safeguards system as it develops and responds to a changing international security environment. The Agency reports on the implementation of its safeguards activities in its Annual Report, which is publicly available, and in the Safeguards Implementation Report (SIR), which has a restricted distribution. It is in these documents that the IAEA certifies that its verification activities are sufficient to support a credible conclusion of non-diversion and the absence of undeclared nuclear activities. The reporting of safeguards activities can be separated into three categories of information: Inputs – (e.g. ‘matters of fact’ - numbers of inspections, numbers of samples taken, person-days of inspection, improvements in safeguards technology, etc.); Outcomes (e.g. goal attainment); and Effectiveness – (e.g. assessments of how effective the various activities have been during the reporting period). To date the formats adopted for the Annual Report and the SIR have been focussed on the quantitative measures of classical safeguards. Activities conducted under the Additional Protocol (AP), by their nature, are mostly qualitative and do not lend themselves to the same kind of quantitative performance assessment traditionally applied to classical safeguards activities. AP evaluation is an on-going process which takes into account the results of all safeguards activities, the results of follow-up actions to resolve anomalies and questions and inconsistencies, and a continuing review of all other available information. Traditionally the Annual Report and the SIR have dealt extensively with the reporting of Inputs and Outcomes, but a means of providing information on Effectiveness requires further development. This paper discusses possible means of reporting on Effectiveness, particularly with respect to AP activities.