Year
2003
Abstract
A methodology is under development at the University of Texas in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to allow for the objective assessment of diverse fuel cycles for proliferation resistance. This methodology is intended to allow for the assessment of the effectiveness of safeguards implementation at facilities within a large-scale fuel cycle. Fuel cycles under consideration include nuclear reactors, reprocessing facilities, fuel storage facilities, enrichment plants, fuel fabrication plants, uranium conversion plants, and uranium mining and milling operations. The methodology developed is based on the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis technique. The method uses a series of attributes to determine a proliferation resistance measure for each step in a process flow sheet. Attributes used include DOE attractiveness level (IB through IVE), heating rate from Pu in material (Watts), weight fraction of even Pu isotopes, concentration (SQs/MT), radiation dose rates (rem/hr at a distance of 1-meter), frequency of measurement, measurement uncertainty (SQs per year), number of processing steps that change material form, fuel load type (Batch or Continuous Reload), and percentage of processing steps that use item accounting. Each of the attributes has some weighting which determines its importance in the overall assessment. Each attribute also has an associated utility function derived both from expert knowledge and physical attributes that relates changes in the value of the attribute to its overall effect on the proliferation resistance measure. A method for aggregating proliferation resistance values for each process in a flow sheet into an overall nuclear security measure for the complete cycle was also developed. This method is focused on preventing host nation diversion; however, a similar technique could be used to analyze the risk due to theft by an insider or outsider. This methodology has been applied successfully to example fuel cycles based on the facilities present in Argentina and Brazil to assess the effectiveness of safeguards applied to these facilities and determine the most effective use of resources on safeguarding the complete fuel cycle.