Country Nuclear Arsenal Size Linked to Nonproliferation

In response to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the US government continues to work to decrease its own nuclear arsenal. This policy is based on the conventional assertion raised in previous literature that there is a nexus between the nuclear proliferation of other states and the US arsenal. This convention has been previously challenged with little to no empirical evidence to support the effectiveness of decreasing the arsenal, in fact, it is other security, economic, and political factors that have been shown to drive other states’ decisions on nuclear nonproliferation. Using several statistical models, this study expands on previous research by examining the relationship between not just the size of the US arsenal, but the exploration and pursuit of nuclear weapons of other states and the provision of sensitive nuclear assistance. In a departure from previous studies, this research includes the size of the Russian, Chinese, and Pakistani arsenals. Critically, this empirical study assesses each country’s arsenals effect on other states individually and as a collective group of nuclear powers. The findings of this study should be important to policymakers interested in nuclear arsenal reduction.