Cost Performance Analysis of Physical Protection Systems

Analysis experts are constantly faced with changes in both security threats and security enhancement options. Currently, these experts struggle with manually manipulating vulnerability data as they attempt to determine how best to spend limited resources to enhance protection for a site. There are several potential problems with this manual process, resulting in an inaccurate cost performance analysis: 1) there is no easy way to align cost performance with vulnerability data; and 2) the manual process is based on expert opinion and can be very subjective. In an effort to develop a tool that accurately addresses cost performance, the Department of Energy (DOE) has funded a multi-year effort to develop the Cost Performance Analysis (CPA) software tool. The CPA tool will allow analysts to perform a cost/benefit analysis on proposed modifications for a site. A modification is defined as an upgrade or downgrade of a physical protection element from its baseline performance for a specified analysis. Costs related to each modification may be shown in total cost savings or total cost outlay. The CPA tool will provide a visualization capability that will provide the analysis expert with an overview of the system and display various options (modifications with associated costs) that could be made to the site to achieve desired total system effectiveness. This output will enable the analysis expert to assess the relative value of the proposed modifications based on decision criteria such as total cost to a site, change in system effectiveness, and fitness (a ratio of performance to cost). The CPA tool will be the only efficient means for DOE sites to assess the cost and performance effectiveness of site-specific modifications that are being considered in response to the new Design Basis Threat. There is the potential to avoid many millions of dollars in bad decisions. The CPA tool is leveraging off of some of the work that was done at Sandia from 1996- 1998 to develop a Cost and Performance Analysis architecture