COST AND SCHEDULE FOR RUSSIAN HEU BLEND DOWN EXPANSION APPROACHES

There has been much speculation and much less analysis of what it would take to expand the blend down of Russian highly enriched uranium (HEU) beyond the current rate of 30 metric tons per year. This paper will present the notional cost and schedule findings of an optimization analysis conducted by Russian and US experts to refine and evaluate the cost and schedule impact of four possible approaches to increasing the rate of blend down of additional Russian HEU beyond the rate of 30 metric tons per year. In this paper, we will present an initial work breakdown structure (WBS) to communicate the scope of the analysis. Using this WBS, we will show not only the notional costs and schedule of blending and related operations in Russia, but also the transportation, storage and other costs outside of Russia for certain approaches. The approaches considered in the optimization analysis are defined so as to attempt to reduce the enrichment capacity necessary to achieve the low enriched uranium output, thereby focusing on reducing cost and schedule requirements. However, there is no simple answer to which approach costs more. The cost and schedule implications of the various approaches are very complex and depend critically on the participants and the stakeholders involved and the perspective from which they are evaluating the cost and schedule to maximize what is most beneficial to their national or commercial interests. Implications of our work as a starting point in shaping this perspective and evaluation in general are discussed.