CONTINUOUS, COLLABORATIVE STATE EVALUATION IN THE IAEA DEPARTMENT OF SAFEGUARDS

The IAEA Department of Safeguards is implementing a continuous, collaborative State evaluation process for each State with a safeguards agreement in force. This is improving how the IAEA operates in practice. For example, continuous evaluation ensures that analysis is ongoing and that conclusions and safeguards activities are adjusted promptly as required. To achieve this, verification activities and all information sources are monitored for critical developments (identified for each State based on IAEA knowledge of that State and acquisition path analysis). Any such developments prompt immediate review, in addition to periodic scheduled reviews to assess cumulative changes. This enables a faster response by the Agency in adapting safeguards measures to changing situations and new information. The emphasis on collaborative evaluation recognises that while inspections are and will remain of fundamental importance, they are not the only safeguards activity relevant for evaluating States and drawing conclusions. This paper describes how information from all sources is considered, taking advantage of complementary perspectives in assessing a State’s nuclear activities as a whole. Central to this collaboration are the recently strengthened State Evaluation Groups (SEGs) which now have been assigned key analytic and decision-making responsibilities. The role of these groups is to: gather relevant information and expertise; integrate and analyse new information; review what is known about the State; and, exercising the combined expert judgement of the group, develop and update safeguards conclusions, objectives, approaches and plans. The paper outlines the concept and the associated processes, emphasising the benefits that are already being realized through this approach as well as noting some of the challenges being faced in its implementation.