A Concept for Handling Acquisition Path Analysis in the Framework of IAEA's State-level Approach

With the introduction of the Additional Protocol, the concept of Integrated Safe- guards was elaborated by the IAEA. It has changed the implementation of safeguards to a comprehensive approach where the State is considered as a whole, the so called State-level Concept. A key element of the State-level Concept is the Acquisition Path Analysis. An Acquisition Path can be dened as a sequence of processes a State has to perform to obtain weapons grade nuclear material. By considering the State Nuclear Prole, the Acquisition Path Analysis generates a list of Acquisition Paths ranked by their attractiveness for the State. The Acquisition Path Analysis is currently carried out by the IAEA's analysts based on expert judgment. However, a methodology is lacking that would make the Acquisition Path Analysis more transparent. With our paper we present a concept for a software tool that will be capable of carrying out Acquisition Path Analysis. Based on the ideas of the directed graph methodology, our concept models a network of material forms connected through edges representing processes from the State's Nuclear Prole. Bynding paths through this network, the Acquisition Paths can be extracted and further analyzed. In more detail, our pro- posed process starts with considering State factors as well as the processes' technical characteristics to obtain the edge weights of the network. After that the network is analyzed by a shortest path algorithm delivering a list of Acquisition Paths sorted in decreasing order of attractiveness for the State. However, if the process would stop now and the IAEA would only concentrate on the Acquisition Paths with the highest attractiveness, a potential proliferator could use this knowledge to follow a strategy apart from these Acquisition Paths. Therefore, we use game theory to model the de- cisions made by the IAEA and the State. By considering the Acquisition Paths and legal behavior as strategies, we cannd a Nash equilibrium that gives us an indicator on the eectiveness of the implemented safeguards system. Using this approach, a methodology for Acquisition Path Analysis could be established that would be more standardized, reproducible and objective than the IAEA's current approach.