Complexities in Gauging Time-dependency of Proliferation Resistance

To a considerable extent, policy decisions on nuclear fuel cycle issues depend upon how decision makers recognize and weigh “long-term” and “short-term” nuclear proliferation risk factors. Priorities and structures of advanced fuel cycle and safeguards research and development programs are affected similarly. Unfortunately, there is a diversity of understanding of the precise meanings of these proliferation risk terms, leading to lack of precision in their usage. In addition, proliferation risk evaluation fundamentally involves value judgments on the relative importance of time-dependent risks. Poor communication and diverse conclusions often result. This paper explores some complexities in gauging “long-term” and “short-term” proliferation risk in the context of advanced nuclear fuel cycles. A convenient vehicle for this purpose is a commonly used notional plot of some proliferation resistance attribute of spent fuel or separated plutonium versus years from reactor discharge, often overlain with similar notional curves denoting multiple fuel irradiation and recycle. A common basis for misuse of such plots is failure to clearly define the range of proliferation threats being evaluated, as illustrated by several common examples of such omissions. Partial arguments of this type can be misleading and provide a disservice to policy makers who must have a clear picture of the tradeoffs being made. This paper concludes with a call for much greater care to avoid overly simplistic interpretations of notional proliferation-related concepts and greater precision in general in use of proliferation-related terminology.