China’s Stockpile of Military Plutonium: a New Estimate

While China has kept information about its stocks of fissile materials and nuclear weapons secret, a great deal of new public information on the history of Chinese plutonium production has recently become available. This paper will estimate China’s stockpile of plutonium for nuclear weapons by analyzing the new public information about the plutonium production at its two plutonium production complexes. Also, the history of plutonium production and the status of the production facilities are discussed. The author estimates that China currently has stockpiles of about 1.8±0.5 tons of plutonium available for weapons. The new estimated value is significantly lower than most previous independent estimates, which range from 2.1–6.6 tons of plutonium.