The Challenges of Non-Proliferation Information Analysis

Year
2009
Author(s)
Jacques Baute - International Atomic Energy Agency
Abstract
Information analysis is an activity which is being conducted by all living beings, beyond humankind, in order just to survive. One collects, processes, evaluates, consolidates with other information, compares with previous knowledge or instinct, explores other scenarios and finally decides on a course of action. Unfortunately, every single step of the way has its own risks that can possibly lead to what may appear to be the wrong decision. When individual human factors come into the picture, information may become power, bad news may have to be avoided, communication breakdown often occurs and private agendas can overshadow general interest. Modern proliferation challenges require addressing all the pitfalls by which information can be ineffectively used or misused. Unfortunately, these proliferation challenges can also benefit from diverging political agendas, bureaucratic rigidities, the attractiveness of money, and globalisation. For the IAEA to remain the sustainable provider of credible information and Safeguards conclusions to the International Community with regard to the assessment of existing and future proliferation risks, the establishment of appropriate resources including adequate computer support and the overall optimization of internal processes is a must. As is tradition, assistance in all relevant areas must come from Member States but we also need to consider support from other sources in order to address the critical areas for improvement at a faster pace. Based on ongoing experiences in dealing with information analysis related to nuclear proliferation issues, this article provides food for thought with a broad view of the challenges that are faced and emphasizes concrete ideas to ensure that the proliferation community remains fit to address these challenges for the future.