An Assessment of the Global Nuclear Threat

The possibility of an attack by chemical, biological, radiological or NWs has been identified as the greatest threat faced by the United States (US) and Russia. In an effort to create a world partnership to counter this threat, the US and Russian government established the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism with an invitation to participate for willing partners. The threat of a nuclear attack presupposes a set of possible scenarios for the illicit transfer of nuclear material, device or a weapon by either a “rogue” nation, a subgroup within a nuclear nation, an external group with nationalist or terrorist goals, or an individual or group seeking a buyer. In each case, a set of assumptions must be developed regarding level of knowledge of nuclear materials, radiation shielding, financial resources, knowledge of pathways and locations of nuclear detection equipment, and the available options for ground, air and sea transportation. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the different nuclear traffickers from the perspective of the assumptions regarding detectability will vary with the nation, group or individual perpetuating the transfer, transportation and preparation of a nuclear sale or attack.