Analyzing Recent Developments at the Shahrud Missile Test Facility

Satellite imagery plays a key role in tracking and assessing the capabilities of weaponsprograms around the world. Using Iran’s Shahrud missile testing site as an example, we willdemonstrate how open source geospatial information such as satellite imagery and 3D modellingcan be used to assess Iran’s missile development. This is particularly salient given the uncertainfate of the JCPOA. Iran’s missile program has raised tensions between JCPOA parties and couldjeopardize the integrity of the agreement. The Shahrud site has undergone dramatic recentconstruction. In contrast to the widely publicized Imam Khomeini Space Center, reports on theseupgrades have been scarce, suggesting that the site is used for less public military activities.Satellite images of the Shahrud site purchased by the James Marin Center for NonproliferationStudies reveal new roads, buildings, checkpoints, fences, surplus construction material,underground tunneling and significantly enhanced security features. The site contains a largeconcrete vertical launch facility and flame trench. The authors believe that there is new evidenceof a horizontal test facility as well as the construction of possible air defenses in images taken inNovember 2016. This is significant because horizontal testing usually implies solid-fuel motordevelopment. By using geospatial tools to monitor this development, we can assess Iran’sprogress towards developing extended range capabilities that could be deployed at shorter noticethan liquid-fuelled variants. We will also analyze the imagery using different band combinationsto make qualitative assessments about the nature of the motor tests. Furthermore, the authors willcompare open source satellite imagery of known Iranian air defenses such as SAM sites around Tehran and Esfahan with identified constructions at the Shahrud site. We claim that the patternsof said constructions suggest that they will be used as a SAM site. We will also flag differencesbetween the placement of various SAM variants in order to predict the variant that will bedeployed at the Shahrud site. Putting our conclusions in the broader picture, we believe that thetesting activities and surplus construction material indicate that Iran is making more progressthan previously thought towards developing a three-stage ICBM.