An Analysis on the Distribution of Nuclear Material Theft/Smuggling Scenarios

Recent events have focused on the possible increased threat of nuclear theft/smuggling in environments where traditional safeguards controls and expenditures have declined. Discussions concerning the exact nature of the threat have been debated. This paper proposes a model to analyze the potential distribution of that threat. A number of basic assumptions concerning the characteristics of the model are postulated. Using these assumptions, a model is developed that assigns probabilities to a set of decisions performed by the individuals involved in theft/smuggling. The individuals’ decisions are based on their perceived cost/benefit. The results of the model are evaluated in terms of degree of smuggling network complexity and probability of success. Basic sensitivity analysis of the model is discussed. This paper, by attempting to model the potential distribution of nuclear material theft/smuggling events increases to analytical tools available to those individuals interested in understanding, evaluating and countering the threat of nuclear material theft/smuggling.