The 2005 India-US Nuclear Agreement and its Implications for Indian Nuclear Capability

The joint statement issued by President George Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in July, 2005 states, among other things, that India will identify and separate its civilian nuclear facilities from its nuclear weapons complex, and offer the former to safeguarding by the International Atomic Energy Agency. In exchange, the U.S. government is willing to lift its existing sanctions on the supply of nuclear fuel and technology to India and to move the US Congress to amend its laws to enable this. It has also offered to persuade its allies in the international community to ease multi-lateral non-proliferation control restrictions against India. The details of how the Indo-US agreement will unfold in the coming months as the two sides complete negotiations on how India is to separate its nuclear facilities. We will discuss in this paper how the different Indian choices of which facilities are deemed civilian and which military will impact the growth of its nuclear arsenal, its fissile material inventories and nuclear energy program. We will assess in particular what demarcation of facilities would be most consistent with India's declared policy of ‘minimum deterrence.’